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STAT 500 Homework 3 Answers (Penn State University)

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Problem 1 (20 points): Your professor gives a surprise quiz consisting of 10 true/false questions. A) What is the complement of the event of getting at least one question wrong? B) With rando... m guessing for each question, show that the probability of getting at least one question wrong is 0.999 Problem 2 (20 points): Based on records of automobile accidents in a recent year, the Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles in Florida reported the counts who survived (S) and died (D), according to whether they wore a seat belt (Y = yes, N = no). The data are presented in the table below. Problem 3 (20 points): A local downtown arts and crafts shop found from past observation that 20% of the people who enter the shop actually buy something. Three potential customers enter the shop. Find the probability of at least one sale to the three customers. Problem 4 (20 points): The Triple Blood Test screens pregnant women for the genetic disorder, Down syndrome. This syndrome, which occurs in about 1 in 800 live births, arises from an error in cell division that results in a fetus having an extra copy of chromosome 21. It is the most common genetic cause of mental impairment. The chance of having a baby with Down syndrome increases after a woman is 35 years old. A study (see J. Haddow et al., New England Journal of Medicine, vol. 330, pp. 1114-1118, 1994) of 5282 women aged 35 or over analyzed the Triple Blood Test to test its accuracy. The table below summarizes the data from that study. Problem 5 (20 points): In a jury trial, suppose the probability the defendant is convicted, given guilt, is 0.95, and the probability the defendant is acquitted, given innocence, is 0.95. Suppose that 90% of all defendants truly are guilty. Find the probability the defendant was actually innocent given the defendant is convicted. [Show More]

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