Pol 164: Public Opinion MIDTerm Major topics ALL SOLUTION 100%CORRECT SPRING FALL-2022 LATEST GUARANTEED GRADE A+

● Definition and ambiguity of “public opinion” ○ Notoriously difficult to define, no one has advanced a definition that satisfies a substantial number of students in the field. ■ Book: The preferences of the adult popu ...

● Definition and ambiguity of “public opinion” ○ Notoriously difficult to define, no one has advanced a definition that satisfies a substantial number of students in the field. ■ Book: The preferences of the adult population on matters of relevance to government. ○ Public opinion is not only a part of the new, they are news ○ Public opinion polls: are indirect measures of public opinion Arguments in favor of the public ● no better alternative ● Public become more liberal in its orientation when we are more successful in terms of resources. ○ However, when deficits and inflation hit, people want to cut back ○ Aggregate public has a rational mind of its own ● The rise of fascism ○ Germany and italy ■ Had been mistreated under the versailles treaty ■ Such a loss of life, that they wanted to punish something ○ People are open to manipulations. ● Arguments against following public opinion ○ Flaws of Individuals …. ■ respond to emotions and rumors ● Governed by an unruly crowd ● React based on rage and anger, no reason and fact ● Crowd’s actions are unstable and can be manipulated.. ○ Demagogues ○ Stereotypes, Scapegoats and unfounded claims ■ Civil liberties, rights rule by law fall before the angry mob ○ Political Theory… ■ Ancient Theorists ● Plato ○ Reinforced the idea that we are incapable of reasoned argument ● Aristotle ○ ■ Machiavelli (The Prince) ● The fickle nature of man and self centeredness ● Lack of principle, always looking out for themselves. ● Will turn against you in your time of need. ● Men are easy to manipulate ■ Karl Marx ● The public, by definitions, are a set of dupes. Those who control the means of productions have the power, and there is no other independent source of power. ■ Adolf Hitler and Josef Goebbels ● Came to power in a democratic election ○ Used the loss of WWI and Economic hardship to acquire power ○ Masters at use of propaganda to build support ■ Movies ■ Campaign appealing to youth ■ Campaign to get people to work in the weapons industry. ○ Mobilized Citizens for total war. ■ 13% of the German Population killed and wounded in the war. *** Even though we generally act in a reasonable fashion, in times of crisis under the leadership of people who don't have the country's best interest at heart will use scapegoats, and seek to expand their own power. ■ Liberal Thinkers.. ● Thomas Hobbes ● James Madison ○ Majority factions can rise and be seduced by the whim of the moments ○ Pit factions against factions as a check ● John Locke ● Ideals that citizens and governing elites should fulfill in a representative democracy ○ Citizens ■ Interested (or motivated) enough to ● Learn about issues, institutions, policies and leaders ● Choose to participate politically ■ Competent ● Think rationally about… ○ Acquiring credible information ○ Linking means to ends in making choices ● Able to identify what they want, in principle ■ Aggregate: Well-informed majority rules ● Knowledge levels among the Average Citizen ○ Institutions ■ Know that Congress has power to declare war 53% ■ Name all 3 branches gov’t 49 % ■ Can name at least one Supreme Court Justice 35% ■ Bill of Rights prohibits official religion 27% ■ Identify Chief Justice of supreme court 8%, ■ Speaker of the house 23% ■ Their Rep n the House of Rep’s 47% ■ BUT: 76% can identify their astrological sign and 89% can correctly identify bart simpson. ○ Policy (Again lacking the most basic understanding and engagement ■ IRAQ ● Iraq directly involved in 9/11 attacks 22% ● 2) Iraq gave substantial support to al- Qaeda, but not involved in 9/11 35% ● 3) A few al-Qaeda individuals visited Iraq or had contact with Iraqi officials 29% ● 4) There was no connection at all June 2003 4% ■ Saddam Hussein was personally involved in the Sept 11th attacks (september 2003) ● Very Likely 32% ● Somewhat Likely 37% ● Not very Likely 12% ● Not likely at all 3% ■ American’s are uninformed, but they know it. ● Affordable Care Act/ Obama care ○ Opposed 52-42 in latest polls ○ But, 69 feel they don’t have enough informations. ○ Governing Elites ■ Run for office and take Policy positions ■ Challenge: Number and Diversity of national issues ■ They form Political coalitions on most issues ■ Frame elections as choice of competing platforms of policy position ■ Solution: Ideology of left/ liberalism and right/ conservatism ■ Implement promises once in office *Poststratification Weighting: Effective, but imperfective. ● Science of measuring public opinion; quota sample, simple random sample, probability sample; multi-stage cluster samples and history of early failures ○ Quota Sample ■ Employs the census to determine the percentage of certain relevant groups in the population. ■ Importantly quota sampling is not scientific sampling ● Respondents are not randomly chosen ○ Pollster chooses how many ■ Male, White, Catholic, Well-educated ○ Interviewers are assigned quotas on how many people from each demographic must be polled ■ Interviewer may get all info from one block ■ Avoid certain neighborhoods ○ Evidence has demonstrated how quota samples are are likely to systematically underrepresented the poor, ○ Simple Random Sample ■ Randomness refers to the only method by which a representative sample can be scientifically drawn. ● In a simple random sample, each unit of the population has exactly the same chance of being drawn as any other unit. ○ For example: ■ If the population is American Attorneys, each attorney is required to have exactly the same probability of being selected in order for the sample to be random. ■ Attorneys in big cities could not have a greater likelihood of getting into the sample than those from rural areas. ● This requires detailed knowledge of the population. ● Could get a list of Attorneys from the American Bar Association. ● Not as easy to get a simple random sample of unemployed adults. ○ Probability Sample ■ This is variant of the principle of random sampling. Instead of each unit having exactly the same probability of being drawn, some units are more likely to be drawn than others, BUT this is a known probability ● For example: Voter Precincts in a state ○ It is not of consequence that some precincts contain more people than others do. ○ To make the sample representative, the larger precincts must have a greater likelihood of being selected than smaller ones. ○ Multi-Stage Cluster Samples ■ From 1930’s to 1980’s predominant survey methodology was to interview respondents in person, in their own homes, but no master list of all american who could be sampled ■ So they use Multi-stage cluster samples: ● Divide the country into 4 geographic regions ○ Within in each region, a set of counties and standard metropolitan statistical areas is randomly selected. ■ 5 or 4 Blocks are randomly selected ● Then randomly select houses ○ Male/ Female based on Age ● The interviewers are given male/ female/ age quotas, but this is not a quota sample as they interiver cannot choose who gets into the sample. ■ This is a good cost effect method compared to SRS, but it has a higher sampling error. ● SRS sampling error: 3% ● SRS sampling error: 4% ○ History of Failures ■ Several instances of mistakes, and intentionally ignoring sampling theory: ■ Push polling: ● Used to influence the election by use if tricks. ■ Straw Poll: ● 1896 Chicago Record Conducts straw poll on McKinley VS William Jennings Bryan for president.