Bloomberg Answers Economic Indicators The Primacy of GDP (30 min.) Knowledge Check 1 How accurately do GDP statistics portray the economy and why? Knowledge Check 2 Consider the formula GDP = C I (X-M). A country is unde
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Bloomberg Answers Economic Indicators The Primacy of GDP (30 min.) Knowledge Check 1 How accurately do GDP statistics portray the economy and why? Knowledge Check 2 Consider the formula GDP = C I (X-M). A country is undergoing a boom in consumption of domestic and foreign luxury goods. In one year, the dollar growth in imports is greater than the dollar growth in domestic consumption. Assuming nothing else has changed, what happened to GDP? Knowledge Check 3 Here is the most important economic data for Australia and Sweden. Which economy did better year-over-year (YOY) in the fourth quarter of 2013 compared to the fourth quarter of 2012? Use the two charts to investigate. Knowledge Check 4 In the US, why is there a strong correlation between unemployment and GDP? SECTION QUIZ Here is a chart showing both nominal GDP growth and real GDP growth for a country. Which of the following can be a true statement at the time the chart was captured? Which of the following lines is the best leading economic factor? The “misery index” is often cited in the media as a way to measure consumer pain. It is defined as the inflation rate plus the unemployment rate. Review and identify the country with the highest “misery index.” What typically happens to nonfarm payrolls, the PMI indicator, and housing starts at the onset of a recession in the United States? Monitoring GDP (10 min.) SECTION QUIZ Which of the following qualities of economic indicators do investors prize the most? Why is the release of GDP statistics less interesting to investors than the release of other economic indicators? Which of the following important U.S. economic indicators is only available on a quarterly basis? Which economic indicator is most directly linked to unemployment? Forecasting GDP (20 min.) Knowledge Check 1 Here is the economic calendar for the UK for August 2013. Examine indicators like PMI, house prices, industrial production, employment, retail sales, and GDP. Based on these major indicators, how did the UK economy perform overall? Knowledge Check 2 This chart was captured in mid-2014. At that point in time, which of the following terms would have described the growth in the Chinese economy predicted in this pop-out table? Knowledge Check 3 How have economic forecasts for this economy evolved? SECTION QUIZ These charts show data for four countries as of early 2016. For each country, the purple line denotes historic real GDP growth. The white line denotes the consensus estimated real GDP growth. The red line denotes the most pessimistic analyst forecast. The green line denotes the most optimistic analyst forecast. For which country is there the most controversy among the analyst community about 2016 growth? What is the main reason that investment banks create estimates of economic indicators? Which of the following is the biggest pitfall of economic indicators? Here is a chart displaying estimates of the initial jobless claims indicator, one of the main unemployment statistics in the U.S. It measures the number of new applicants for unemployment benefits. What was the level of the analyst with the most optimistic outlook? Currencies Currency Market Mechanics (25 min.) Knowledge Check 1 Which country is both the fourth biggest importer and exporter? Knowledge Check 2 In 1994, the Mexican peso declined against the U.S. dollar during the so-called “Tequila Crisis”. What exacerbating factor did Mexico’s “Tequila Crisis” have in common with the Argentine crisis of 2002? Knowledge Check 3 Using the given chart, how many New Zealand dollars (NZD) can you buy with 100 Australian dollars (AUD)? SECTION QUIZ Allison lives in America and has just retired. It is early 2016. She has long had dreams of cruising the fjords on the west coast of Norway, visiting Buckingham Palace in the United Kingdom, seeing the cherry blossoms in Japan, and going to the top of the Eiffel Tower in France. She last considered all four options on New Year’s Day 2008. She would like to select the trip to go on based on which country’s currency has subsequently weakened the most against the U.S. dollar. Where should she go on vacation? Review the currency pair charts for the Barbadian dollar against the Jamaican dollar, the Czech koruna against the Polish zloty, the Nigerian naira against the Ghanaian cedi, and the Hong Kong dollar against the Macanese pataca. Which pair is pegged. Which of the following is NOT an example of a failed peg? Use the chart below to answer the question. How many Danish crowns (DKK) will buy 100 Japanese yet (JPY)? Currency Valuation (20 min.) Knowledge Check 1 According to this Big Mac index screen, which of the following four countries’ currency is the most undervalued? Knowledge Check 2 What generally happens when a central bank unexpectedly increases interest rates? Knowledge Check 3 Which driver weakened the Swiss franc? SECTION QUIZ What does the Big Mac index show? Which of the following are short-term drivers of currency valuation? By what mechanism do interest rates affect currency values? Which of these headlines could move a currency pair? Central Banks and Currencies (15 min.) SECTION QUIZ What is the most common target inflation rate for an advanced economy? What was the primary goal of Abenomics? Here is the deflationary cycle. What steps connect the lower left gray arrow to the upper right blue arrow? Were the two oil crises in the 1970s linked to deflation or inflation? Currency Risk (15 min.) Knowledge Check 1 On June 23, 2016, the UK voted to leave the European Union. The white line shows the UK’s main equity index, the FTSE 100, from the start of 2016 of the date on which the UK government notified the European Union of its intent to leave. The orange line shows the number the number of dollars it takes to buy one pound sterling. The UK is a net importer, meaning the value of imports exceed the value of exports. What can be reasonably surmised from the chart about large UK corporations? Knowledge Check 2 In early 2016, the same Germany machinery company has interest from four prospective clients from emerging markets: Indonesia, Brazil, Russia and South Africa. They all want to buy ten machines, but the factory can only produce ten in time. Therefore, the company has to choose only one client. Given the volatility of the domestic currencies of the four prospective clients, the CFO would like to choose the client which is least likely to cancel the order due to currency volatility. The invoice comes due on June 30, 2016. According to historical currency volatility alone, which prospective client would be least likely to cancel the order? Knowledge Check 3 What is the median estimate for the number of Japanese yen per euro for calendar year 2020? Knowledge Check 4 What is the different between Nomura and RBC’s estimate for the Japanese yen/euro currency pair for the end of Q1 2018? Knowledge Check 5 Imagine you are a Dutch diamond dealer who sources diamonds from South Africa. It is March 2016. A new mine is being dug in South Africa and you have agreed with the miner to buy one million South African rands’ worth of diamond a year from today. Therefore, you will need one million rands in cash in one year’s time. The miner wants you to demonstrate your commitment by either giving him a million rands now or providing that you have an FX forward contract for the full amount. Currently, the exchange rate is 17.1 rands to the euro. You check the forward rates on offer on the Bloomberg FRD function. You have two options. Exchange euros today at today’s exchange rate to pay him one million rands now, or lock in a forward agreement to convert euros to one million rands in one year’s time and share the forward agreement with him. If you were to do the forward instead of exchanging euros for rands today, approximately how much more or less would you end up with in a year? SECTION QUIZ Why would Jack Welch suggest putting all company plants on barges? Samsung is based in South Korea and reports in South Korean won. Samsung sells its products around the world and the geographic breakdown of its 2015 revenues is in the first chart. The other charts show how some major world currencies moved against the South Korean won through the course of 2015. Of the currencies shown, which currency movement boosted Samsung’s revenue growth the most? Legendary investor Warren Buffet said, “Gold gets dug out of the ground… Then we melt it down, dig another hole, bury it again, and pay people to stand around guarding it. It has no utility. Anyone watching from Mars would be scratching their head.” Based on this quotation, what quality of gold is he referring to? Which of the following options is the best way for investors to manage currency risk? Fixed Income The Roots of the Bond Market (25 min.) Knowledge Check 1 What do the green bars at the bottom signify? Knowledge Check 2 According to the table, who owns approximately 1.3% of actively traded US debt? Knowledge Check 3 What quality of US government bonds causes investors to buy them when market volatility rises? Knowledge Check 4 Why is fixed income called fixed income? SECTION QUIZ Why does the United States have a strong reputation for creditworthiness? What is one reason why foreign governments lend to the U.S. government? What does one yellow bar depict in this debt distribution diagram? Which one of the following actors benefits when interest rates go up? Bond Valuation (50 min.) Knowledge Check 1 When investors doubt the creditworthiness of a borrower, how do they alter their calculation of the bond yield to take into account these doubts? Knowledge Check 2 As a general rule, what percentage of debt to GDP will make a government bond yield spike? Knowledge Check 3 What is true of both the UK and the US? Knowledge Check 4 Which would you prefer? Knowledge Check 5 Which would you prefer? SECTION QUIZ What is the primary reason for U.S. government bond yield to ripple through the bond market? A rise in which of the following measures would typically send a government bond price up? Which of the countries shown makes the greatest relative use of short-term government financing? How do investors compare bonds? Central Bankers and Interest Rates (25 min.) Knowledge Check 1 Which of the following is the strongest driver of inflation? Knowledge Check 2 This chart shows the output gap in the US from 1949 to 1973. What is the output gap in 1973? SECTION QUIZ Here is a chart from the ILBE function displaying U.S. 10-year inflation expectations as of early 2017. At the point in time shown, where is the country’s 10-year inflation expectation in relation to the Central Bank’s inflation target? Investors who fear rising inflation may buy Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS). How do TIPS shield lenders from inflation? What is the Federal Reserve’s favorite inflation gauge? Here is the output gap in the U.S. in early 1975. What was likely the Fed interest rate policy? The Yield Curve and Why It Matters (15 min.) Knowledge Check 1 Why does the yield curve naturally slope upwards? Knowledge Check 2 Why did the corporate spread significantly widen during the 2008 market crash? SECTION QUIZ What impact will a tightening of the corporate spread most likely have on a company? What are the three main transmission mechanisms by which the yield curve affects the economy? What is the 10-year to 3-month term premium of the following yield curve? The purchase of which of the following products is most affected by interest rates? Movements in the Yield Curve (20 min.) SECTION QUIZ What is the primary driver of the left-hand end of the yield curve? Which yield curve is most likely linked to a booming economy? The two yield curve in the chart are from September 10, 2001 and from October 10, 2001. What do you think the Federal Reserve did with interest rates in the month following the attacks of September 11, 2001? Why does the yield curve tend to invert shortly before a recession? EQUITIES Introducing the Stock Market (25 min.) Knowledge Check 1 Why do companies do IPOs? SECTION QUIZ Why do company manager-owners smile when they ring the stock exchange bell at their IPO? The Dow Jones Industrial Average Index has an unusual weighting methodology. Unlike the S & P 500, it is weighted by share price. Here are 22 of the 30 members of the Dow Jones as of mid-June 2015. If all the shares went up by 5%, which share on the screen shown would have the biggest contribution to an upward movement in the index? In 1999, James Glassman and Kevin Hassett published a book called “Dow 36,000.” At the time, the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index was just under 12,000. Which of the following is a potential substitute for the book title? Here is a chart of the index value for the S&P 500 and the United Kingdom’s main equity index, the FTSE 100, from the end of 2008 to early 2015. The labels have been removed. One index has clearly outperformed the other. Over this period, there was a technology boom and an oil crash. Here are pie charts showing the early 2015 index compositions by industry for both the S&P 500 and the FTSE 100. Which index outperformed? The Nature of Equities (35 min.) Knowledge Check 1 What is the prime reason that Jenny’s discretionary income is more volatile than her salary? Knowledge Check 2 A wedding planning company has a high fixed-cost base and a lot of debt. Who would you rather be? Knowledge Check 3 The S&P 500 stood at 1848 at the end of 2013. According to the chart, what would the approximate return be on the S&P 500 from the trough of March of 2009 to the end of 2013, ignoring dividends? Knowledge Check 4 Assume that an investor in the S&P 500 reinvests his dividends. According to the chart, what approximate return would this investor have reaped from the early 2009 through to the endpoint of the chart? SECTION QUIZ Why are equities volatile? Which of the following statements is true? In the example highlighting the differences between bond holders and shareholders, we equated surgeon Jenny to a shareholder. Which row of the budget planning table shows the amount to which she as a shareholder would be entitled? You but the stock of four consumer goods companies at the end of 2004 and hold them until August 2010. Here are the TRA (Total Return) charts from Bloomberg for all four stocks. The “Buy Price” in the top left-hand corner is the price you paid for each stock. The price of the stock in August 2010 is noted in the chart’s legend. The legend also states the Dividend Adjusted Value in 2010, which is the value of the stock including reinvested dividends over the holding period. For which stock did the bulk of the total return come from dividends? Equity Research (45 min.) Knowledge Check 1 What does the release of earning announcements have in common with the release of economic indicators? Knowledge Check 2 The number at the bottom right of each supplier’s box shows the portion of Boeing’s costs in the last year that went to that supplier. The number at the bottom right of each customer’s box shows the portion of the customer’s capital expenditure (money spent in high value purchases) in the last year that went to Boeing. For which company shown was Boeing the primary plan supplier in the last year? Knowledge Check 3 Which company is most exposed to the ups and downs of the aircraft engine industry? Knowledge Check 4 Engines are the most expensive, heavy component on an aircraft and are designed with detailed specifications. Which of the following would likely be the best theme for a Rolls-Royce analyst research note to help a portfolio manager decide between investing in Rolls-Royce or United Technologies? Knowledge Check 5 You are building a financial model of a bifocal lens manufacturer. Which of the following is the best driver to use? Knowledge Check 6 Here is a table from the Bloomberg Intelligence aluminum dashboard which shows the different end-uses of aluminum in China. Which of the following Bloomberg headlines would be of most interest to an aluminum trader in China? SECTION QUIZ When an analyst is looking at a company for the first time, which of the following four activities does he do first? Here is a table from the Bloomberg Intelligence copper dashboard which shows the different end-users of the “red metal.” Which of the following Bloomberg headlines would likely be of most interest to a copper trader? Here is a breakdown of post-it note inventor 3M’s revenue by industry. Which of the following industry drivers should be of most interest to a prospective investor of 3M? Company X was expected to have earnings per share of $0.52 for the upcoming quarter. On the day of the results, the company reported earnings per share of $0.83. What happened to the share price when the stock market opened? Absolute Valuation (50 min.) Knowledge Check 1 Which company is worth more, Coca-Cola or Pepsi? Knowledge Check 2 Widget Co has a market capitalization of $ 100M. It does a 10-for-1 stock split. It then does a 1-for-16 reverse stock split. Finally, it does a 35-for-1 stock split. Nothing else changes. What’s the new market cap? Knowledge Check 3 What input do both absolute valuation and relative valuation typically require? Knowledge Check 4 Which if the following is most likely to be the most challenging part of this step of the absolute valuation process? Knowledge Check 5 What is a reason one discounts future cash flow as part of the absolute valuation process? Knowledge Check 6 What role does beta play in absolute valuation? Knowledge Check 7 Here is the capital structure of Microsoft. What part of the $42.03 share price (to the nearest dollar) is represented by cash? Knowledge Check 8 How is enterprise vale calculated? SECTION QUIZ Which of the following stocks is most sensitive to the movement of the overall stock market? Which of the following assigns the same relative weightings to short-term and long-term outcomes as the absolute variation process? Here is the WACC function for U.S. drug company Pfizer. The WACC calculation has been hidden. What is the WACC? A rise in which of the following inputs will increase an absolute variation? Relative Valuation (45 min.) Knowledge Check 1 How do earnings yields differ from bond yields? Knowledge Check 2 At its peak at the end of 1999, Microsoft had a market cap of $600B. PC sales were booming and most PCs ran on Microsoft software. Revenue was growing 30% per year. The P/E ratio peaked at nearly 80.0X in 1999. Looking at this chart, what happened in the subsequent 15 years? Knowledge Check 3 What is one possible weakness of this peer approach to valuation? Knowledge Check 4 What may be a problem of comparing the P/E of a stock to the P/E of the overall market? SECTION QUIZ Here is a chart of the NASDAQ Composite, the world’s main technology index. It peaked in the dotcom bubble on March 10, 2000. The P/E ratio later peaked above 500. In hindsight, this is widely agreed to have been a bubble. In March 2015, the index value for the first time since then surpassed the peak. Why might some investors at that point have argued “this time it’s different”? The World Equity Index function shown contains two valuation metrics for the S&P 500. The Nike description contains the same two valuation metrics. How does Nike’s valuation compare to that of the S&P 500? If the earnings per share of a company is $1 and the earnings yield is 2%, what is the price per share? This chart shows a scatterplot with the x-axis being the estimated sales growth and the y-axis being the estimated P/E multiple. Given this data alone, which of the following companies may warrant further analysis by a portfolio manager looking to buy an insurance company for her portfolio?
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