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Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response by Judith A. Curry

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Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response is a book by eminent climate scientist Judith A. Curry that analyzes the climate change debate, arguing for a more pragmatic approach to risk management and ...

Climate Uncertainty and Risk: Rethinking Our Response is a book by eminent climate scientist Judith A. Curry that analyzes the climate change debate, arguing for a more pragmatic approach to risk management and policy-making by explicitly acknowledging and incorporating deep uncertainties and diverse viewpoints.

Core Themes

Acknowledging Deep Uncertainty: The book emphasizes that there is significant, inherent, and irreducible uncertainty in 21st-century climate projections, particularly concerning the precise impact of CO2, natural climate variability, and the limitations of complex climate models.
Reframing the Problem: Curry reframes climate change as a "wicked problem" (complex and non-linear, with no simple or single solution) rather than a "tame" one with a clear consensus and straightforward answers.
Critique of the Status Quo: She offers a critical assessment of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports and the "narrowly focused" policies they support, arguing that the problem and its solutions have been oversimplified for political purposes.
Dynamic Risk Management: The book advocates for a dynamic and adaptive decision-making approach that can be monitored and adjusted over time, as opposed to static, long-term plans that are difficult to implement.
Pragmatic Solutions: Curry provides a road map for formulating pragmatic solutions that consider a broad portfolio of mitigation and adaptation measures, taking into account other global challenges like energy security and poverty alleviation.
Elevating the Discourse: A major goal of the book is to help elevate the scientific and political discourse by encouraging a balanced, evidence-based discussion that incorporates disagreement and a wide range of values in the decision-making process.

Structure

The book is divided into three main parts:

Part One: The Climate Change Challenge: Introduces the topic and discusses the challenges of consensus, the mixing of science and politics, and the nature of the climate change problem.
Part Two: Uncertainty of Twenty-First Century Climate Change: Delves into the inherent uncertainties, the limitations of climate models, and the "worst-case" scenarios often presented in public discourse.
Part Three: Climate Risk and Response: Focuses on risk assessment, management strategies, decision-making under deep uncertainty, adaptation, resilience, mitigation, and the overall policy discourse.

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