BUS107 Pre-class Quiz 02
The forecast method based on the ability of the human mind to process information is referred as:
Intuitive Approach
In decision analysis, the possible outcomes for a chance event are referred
...
BUS107 Pre-class Quiz 02
The forecast method based on the ability of the human mind to process information is referred as:
Intuitive Approach
In decision analysis, the possible outcomes for a chance event are referred to as:
The state of nature
In an Influence Diagram, consequence nodes are depicted as:
Diamonds
The payoff table for a decision analysis problem is given as below:
State 1 State 2
Decision Alternative 1 100 -50
Decision Alternative 2 -100 200
What is the expected value without perfect information?
State 1 and State 2 have an equal chance of occurring.
50
The payoff table for a decision analysis problem is given as below:
State 1 State 2
Decision Alternative 1 100 -50
Decision Alternative 2 -100 200
What is the expected value of perfect information?
State 1 and State 2 have an equal chance of occurring.
150
For a given state of nature, the payoff of each decision alternative is given as below:
Alternative 1:20
Alternative 2: 60
Alternative 3: 40
What are the Regrets of decision alternatives 1, 2 and 3 for the given state of nature, respectively?
0, 40, 20
The payoff of a decision alternative for each state of nature is given as below:
State 1:30
State 2: 100
State 3: 150
The probabilities of States 1, 2 and 3 occurring are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. What is the
expected value of this decision alternative?
75
Which of the followings is not a component of an Influence Diagram in decision analysis?
Payoff nodes
Which of the following statements is true on Risk Analysis?
It helps the decision maker to recognise the difference between the expected value of a decision
alternative and the payoff that may actually occur.The payoff of a decision alternative for each state of nature is given as below:
State 1:100
State 2: 20
State 3: 30
The probabilities of States 1, 2 and 3 occurring are 0.3, 0.2 and 0.5, respectively. What is the
expected value of this decision alternative?
41
The payoff table for a decision analysis problem is given as below:
State 1 State 2
Decision Alternative 1 100 50
Decision Alternative 2 30 200
Decision Alternative 3 150 0
Which decision alternative must be chosen under the conservative approach?
Decision Alternative 1
The decision making approach that evaluates each decision alternative in terms of the worst payoff
that can occur is referred to as:
Conservative Approach
Which of the following statements is a correct description of 'exponential smoothing method'?
It uses the average of the most recent n data values in a time series as the forecast for the next
period.
In a Multiplicative Time Series Model, the component attributable to multiyear cycles in the time series
is referred as:
Cyclical Component
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