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SIM UniversityBUS 107BUS107 Pre-class Quiz 02

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BUS107 Pre-class Quiz 02 The forecast method based on the ability of the human mind to process information is referred as: Intuitive Approach In decision analysis, the possible outcomes for a chanc... e event are referred to as: The state of nature In an Influence Diagram, consequence nodes are depicted as: Diamonds The payoff table for a decision analysis problem is given as below: State 1 State 2 Decision Alternative 1 100 -50 Decision Alternative 2 -100 200 What is the expected value without perfect information? State 1 and State 2 have an equal chance of occurring. 50 The payoff table for a decision analysis problem is given as below: State 1 State 2 Decision Alternative 1 100 -50 Decision Alternative 2 -100 200 What is the expected value of perfect information? State 1 and State 2 have an equal chance of occurring. 150 For a given state of nature, the payoff of each decision alternative is given as below: Alternative 1:20 Alternative 2: 60 Alternative 3: 40 What are the Regrets of decision alternatives 1, 2 and 3 for the given state of nature, respectively? 0, 40, 20 The payoff of a decision alternative for each state of nature is given as below: State 1:30 State 2: 100 State 3: 150 The probabilities of States 1, 2 and 3 occurring are 0.5, 0.3 and 0.2, respectively. What is the expected value of this decision alternative? 75 Which of the followings is not a component of an Influence Diagram in decision analysis? Payoff nodes Which of the following statements is true on Risk Analysis? It helps the decision maker to recognise the difference between the expected value of a decision alternative and the payoff that may actually occur.The payoff of a decision alternative for each state of nature is given as below: State 1:100 State 2: 20 State 3: 30 The probabilities of States 1, 2 and 3 occurring are 0.3, 0.2 and 0.5, respectively. What is the expected value of this decision alternative? 41 The payoff table for a decision analysis problem is given as below: State 1 State 2 Decision Alternative 1 100 50 Decision Alternative 2 30 200 Decision Alternative 3 150 0 Which decision alternative must be chosen under the conservative approach? Decision Alternative 1 The decision making approach that evaluates each decision alternative in terms of the worst payoff that can occur is referred to as: Conservative Approach Which of the following statements is a correct description of 'exponential smoothing method'? It uses the average of the most recent n data values in a time series as the forecast for the next period. In a Multiplicative Time Series Model, the component attributable to multiyear cycles in the time series is referred as: Cyclical Component [Show More]

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