PHI 210 6.1-6.6 WEBTEXT PHI 210_FALL 2020: 6 Explanations / Page 6.1 Qualities of Explanations. 100% Score

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PHI 210 6.1-6.6 WEBTEXT PHI 210_FALL 2020: 6 Explanations / Page 6.1 Qualities of Explanations Imagine that you go into your home and see muddy footprints on the floor from shoes you know are not... your own. Give examples of two plausible explanations and two unlikely explanations for the footprints. (opinion) Which of the following explanations for a sudden increase in car accidents at a particular intersection is an unfalsifiable hypothesis? Tyler and Grace water their amaryllis plant regularly, yet for some reason the plant withers and dies. Tyler suggests, “Maybe there was some peculiar property of this particular amaryllis that caused water molecules to react with the soil molecules and chemically change into arsenic molecules, and the arsenic poisoned the plant.” Which of the following is one of the drawbacks of Tyler’s proposed explanation? 6 Explanations / Page 6.2 Practice: Qualities of Explanations In the situation presented in the first video, what was in need of an explanation? According to the “Answering the Three Questions” video, in what way was the “miasmas” (bad smells) explanation inconsistent? What explanation did Dr. Snow settle on? How was Dr. Snow able to test his proposed explanation? Explain how Dr. Snow was able to demonstrate that he wasn’t confusing correlation with causation. Good explanations are often simple, yet they can explain a lot. Explain how the story of Dr. Snow’s “ghost map” drawing demonstrates this. Steven Johnson argues that the story of the cholera epidemic and Dr. Snow’s map is “fundamentally optimistic.” Explain whether or not you agree and why. 6 Explanations / Page 6.3 Scientific Explanations Which of the following questions would you MOST likely look to science to answer? Which of the following is an accurate statement about the nature of science? A friend claims that eating chocolate can strengthen your bone marrow. You’re skeptical of the credibility of that statement, so you read two scientific studies. The first, funded by a large chocolate manufacturing company, confirms this assertion, while the second, funded by the American Society for Nutrition, reaches the opposite conclusion. Should you be more inclined to trust one of these reports over the other? Explain your answer. 6 Explanations / Page 6.4 Practice: Scientific Explanations According to Shermer, why do people believe in “weird things”? One of the examples of bad science in the video is the story of the Fleischmann-Pons cold fusion experiment. What was the problem with the cold fusion claim? According to Shermer, what is the difference between the people at SETI and people who believe in UFOs? One of the nurses says, “I’m a nurse, and I know this for a fact.” Explain how this comment could be used to illustrate the fallacy of unqualified authority. Point 5 in the Baloney Detection Kit asks whether anyone has tried to disprove this claim. What does the video suggest regarding this point? Point 6 in the Baloney Detection Kit asks where the preponderance of evidence seems to point. While this video depicts conflicting claims, it suggests that most of the evidence supports which side? In the flashback to the 1984 news report, the newscaster references a study conducted by a Florida researcher that demonstrated that more murders were committed during a full moon; Shermer then reveals that the study proved to be flawed. Using one of the elements of good vs. bad science detailed above, offer a theory as to what might have gone wrong in this scientific study. 6 Explanations / Page 6.5 Statistics and Fallacies Sharlene is supposed to poll people about their voting choices for her American Government class. She asks four random people on the street about their vote and then reports to her class that 75 percent of the city voted Republican. What is the MOST obvious problem with her statistic? To find out if members of the community are opposed to soft drinks being sold in middle school cafeterias, Gregoire conducts a survey asking, “Do you support the practice of schools pushing the sales of substances known to lead to obesity and heart disease onto impressionable minors?” After analyzing the results, he concludes that 78 percent of people oppose the sale of soft drinks. What is the problem with his statistic? Imagine that you run across a statistic online claiming that men are 25 percent more likely to ski on dangerous slopes than women. Give examples of at least two pieces of information you would want to know about this statistic before you would accept it as fact. (opinion) 6 Explanations / Page 6.6 Practice: Statistics and Fallacies In the scenario the writer describes in the beginning, what are law students most concerned about? The writer discusses a statistic about the economic value of a law degree. Which types of people would MOST likely have a personal investment in accurately understanding this statistic? The study analyzed by the writer arrived at which of the following conclusions? The writer criticizes Simkovic and McIntyre’s paper because it “fails to include some other big numbers.” What “big numbers” does the statistic avoid addressing? What does the writer mean when he says, “There’s a long tail that comes after the tall head”? Now that you’ve read the writer’s evaluation of the claim that “the mean pre-tax lifetime value of a law degree [is] approximately $1,000,000,” explain whether or not you think that statistic qualifies as “deceptive” and why. (opinion) Imagine that you’re considering going back to school for an MBA and trying to evaluate whether the investment of time and money will be worth it. You read on this website that, according to the 2012 Alumni Perspectives Survey of the Graduate Management Admission Council (GMAC), “the median annual salary for MBA degree-holders was $95,000 with additional compensation (bonuses, etc.) of $18,123 annually.” Provide at least two questions you would want to ask about this statistic before accepting it as fact. (opinion) [Show More]

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